Chart H4
GBP - USD
Chart H4
Chart Daily
Proyeksi akhir kenaikan.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Chart Posisi Hari Ini, Kamis, 30/11/06
EUR - USD
Chart H4
GBP - USD
Chart H4
Chart Daily
Proyeksi akhir kenaikan.
Chart H4
GBP - USD
Chart H4
Chart Daily
Proyeksi akhir kenaikan.
Hari ini Dollar tertekan lagi
Hasil Trading Kemarin:
EUR – USD
Posisi :
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun hari ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3148. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3145 - 1.3132, selama 1.3214 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3184 SL. 1.3214 (-30) TP. 1.3151 (+33)
Hasil :
Posisi order open Sell tidak tersentuh. Mestinya ketika break low 1.3162, segera open sell at 1.3160 SL 1.3190 (diatas 50% fibo) TP 1.3135 – 38 (target 161.8% fibo).
GBP - USD
Posisi :
Rally berakhir di 1.9578. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi ke area 1.9455 – 1.9433.
Sell 1.9505 SL. 1.9550 (-45) TP. 1.9455 (+50)
Buy 1.9438 SL. 1.9398 (-40) TP. 1.9570 (132)
Hasil :
Posisi pertama Sell 1.9505 sukses mencapai TP 1.9455 (+50), bahkan target ke 1.9433 tercapai.
Posisi kedua Buy di 1.9438 saat ini Running 1.9460 masih +22 pips.
Posisi ketiga masih belum tersentuh. Kemungkinan hari ini akan terjadi.
Posisi Hari Ini :
EUR – USD
Kenaikan minimal ke 1.3185. Apabila mampu menembus 1.3216, bullish dapat berlanjut ke area 1.3280. Sebaliknya bila break support 1.3130, market ke bawah di area 1.3105 – 1.3077.
Strategi :
Running 1.3147
1. Buy now 1.3147 SL. 1.3125 (-22) TP. 1.3180 (+33)
2. Sell at 1.3174 SL. 1.3214 (-40) TP. 1.3110 (+64)
3. Buy at 1.3225 SL. 1.3200 (-25) TP. 1.3275 (+50)
4. Sell at 1.3130 SL. 1.3180 (-50) TP. 1.3105 (+25) 1.3080 (+50)
5. Buy at 1.3107 SL. 1.3067 (-40) TP. 1.3170 (+63)
GBP – USD
Penurunan dpt berlanjut ke 1.9420, dan jika break 1.9415 berpeluang berlanjut ke 1.9370. Penurunan ini dpt dimulai dari 1.9476 or 1.9488.
Namun sebaliknya bila break resisten 1.9530, maka kenaikan dapat berlanjut ke 1.9578. Dan nampaknya skenario kedua ini yg lebih mungkin untuk mengakhiri wave kenaikan.
Strategi :
Running 1.9460
1. Sell at 1.9476 SL. 1.9530 (-54) TP. 1.9420 (+36) 1.9380 (+96)
2. Buy at 1.9530 SL. 1.9500 (-30) TP. 1.9570 (+40)
3. Buy at 1.9380 SL. 1.9345 (-35) TP. 1.9455 (+75)
God luck !!!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
EUR – USD
Posisi :
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun hari ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3148. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3145 - 1.3132, selama 1.3214 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3184 SL. 1.3214 (-30) TP. 1.3151 (+33)
Hasil :
Posisi order open Sell tidak tersentuh. Mestinya ketika break low 1.3162, segera open sell at 1.3160 SL 1.3190 (diatas 50% fibo) TP 1.3135 – 38 (target 161.8% fibo).
GBP - USD
Posisi :
Rally berakhir di 1.9578. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi ke area 1.9455 – 1.9433.
Sell 1.9505 SL. 1.9550 (-45) TP. 1.9455 (+50)
Buy 1.9438 SL. 1.9398 (-40) TP. 1.9570 (132)
Hasil :
Posisi pertama Sell 1.9505 sukses mencapai TP 1.9455 (+50), bahkan target ke 1.9433 tercapai.
Posisi kedua Buy di 1.9438 saat ini Running 1.9460 masih +22 pips.
Posisi ketiga masih belum tersentuh. Kemungkinan hari ini akan terjadi.
Posisi Hari Ini :
EUR – USD
Kenaikan minimal ke 1.3185. Apabila mampu menembus 1.3216, bullish dapat berlanjut ke area 1.3280. Sebaliknya bila break support 1.3130, market ke bawah di area 1.3105 – 1.3077.
Strategi :
Running 1.3147
1. Buy now 1.3147 SL. 1.3125 (-22) TP. 1.3180 (+33)
2. Sell at 1.3174 SL. 1.3214 (-40) TP. 1.3110 (+64)
3. Buy at 1.3225 SL. 1.3200 (-25) TP. 1.3275 (+50)
4. Sell at 1.3130 SL. 1.3180 (-50) TP. 1.3105 (+25) 1.3080 (+50)
5. Buy at 1.3107 SL. 1.3067 (-40) TP. 1.3170 (+63)
GBP – USD
Penurunan dpt berlanjut ke 1.9420, dan jika break 1.9415 berpeluang berlanjut ke 1.9370. Penurunan ini dpt dimulai dari 1.9476 or 1.9488.
Namun sebaliknya bila break resisten 1.9530, maka kenaikan dapat berlanjut ke 1.9578. Dan nampaknya skenario kedua ini yg lebih mungkin untuk mengakhiri wave kenaikan.
Strategi :
Running 1.9460
1. Sell at 1.9476 SL. 1.9530 (-54) TP. 1.9420 (+36) 1.9380 (+96)
2. Buy at 1.9530 SL. 1.9500 (-30) TP. 1.9570 (+40)
3. Buy at 1.9380 SL. 1.9345 (-35) TP. 1.9455 (+75)
God luck !!!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Kejatuhan Dollar Akan Berakhir
EUR – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun hari ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3148. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3145 - 1.3132, selama 1.3214 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3184 SL. 1.3214 (-30) TP. 1.3151 (+33)
GBP – USD
Rally berakhir di 1.9578. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi ke area 1.9455 – 1.9433.
Sell 1.9505 SL. 1.9550 (-45) TP. 1.9455 (+50)
Buy 1.9438 SL. 1.9398 (-40) TP. 1.9570 (132)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun hari ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3148. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3145 - 1.3132, selama 1.3214 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3184 SL. 1.3214 (-30) TP. 1.3151 (+33)
GBP – USD
Rally berakhir di 1.9578. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi ke area 1.9455 – 1.9433.
Sell 1.9505 SL. 1.9550 (-45) TP. 1.9455 (+50)
Buy 1.9438 SL. 1.9398 (-40) TP. 1.9570 (132)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Setidaknya satu kali koreksi masih diperlukan
EUR – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3048. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3094 atau 1.3051, selagi 1.3161 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3092 SL. 1.3161 (-69) TP. 1.3051 (+41)
GBP – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.9523. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.9269. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.9322 atau 1.9262, selagi 1.9415 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.9319 SL. 1.9415 (-96) TP. 1.9276 (+43)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3048. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.3094 atau 1.3051, selagi 1.3161 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.3092 SL. 1.3161 (-69) TP. 1.3051 (+41)
GBP – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.9523. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.9269. Sehingga sangat diperlukan satu gerakan ke bawah di area 1.9322 atau 1.9262, selagi 1.9415 tidak ditembus.
Sell 1.9319 SL. 1.9415 (-96) TP. 1.9276 (+43)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Dollar Kembali Terpuruk
The greenback masih terpuruk terutama dengan mata uang utama kawasan Eropa menjelang berakhirnya pertemuan menteri-menteri keuangan Uni Eropa malam ini. Sedangkan yen melemah terhadap dollar setelah Fukui menyatakan bahwa pihaknya BoJ belum dapat memastikan kenaikan suku bunganya kembali, hal ini membuat asset-aset investasi Jepang seperti obligasi semakin tidak menarik bagi investor.
Euro mencetak rekor tertinggi terhadap dollar setelah pernyataan Juncker & Breton bahwa suku bunga ECB masih relevan untuk dinaikkan kembali diakhir tahun ini dan penguatan euro tidak perlu dikuatirkan atau dalam masih taraf yang wajar. Ini patut menjadi pertimbangan pula karena People Bank of China dan bank-bank sentral di Timur Tengah berusaha mendiversifikasikan cadangan mata uangnya dari dollar ke mata uang yang lain termasuk euro, Swiss franc, yen dan poundsterling.
Penguatan sterling dipicu oleh kemungkinan besar kenaikan suku bunga BoE di tahun depan dimana ancaman inflasi yang naik masih membayangi Inggris raya yaitu dipicu oleh naiknya harga perumahan dan upah buruh. Sedangkan Swiss franc kembali menguat menjelang data leading indicator diminggu ini.
Hati-hati pula bahwa melemahnya dollar karena factor kesengajaan pemerintah AS karena menangnya partai democrat, dimana partai ini mempunyai kebijakan perekonomian yang moderat atau tidak terlalu agresif seperti seterunya partai republic. Dengan turunnya dollar, maka barang-barang produksi AS diluar negeri akan semakin tampak murah dan diharapkan permintaan serta produksi meningkat sehingga deficit neraca perdagangan semakin kecil.
Focus di Selasa seperti beberapa komentar dari gubernur RBA Richard, menteri keuangan AS Henry Paulson, pejabat ECB Liikanen, pejabat the Fed Plosser, chairman the Fed Ben Bernanke dan pejabat the Fed Michael Moskow yang akan berbicara mengenai outlook ekonomi AS. Sedang data-data ekonomi seperti retail sales dan retail trade Jepang, consumption indicator Swiss, durable goods orders AS, exisiting home sales dan Richmond Fed manufacturing
Euro mencetak rekor tertinggi terhadap dollar setelah pernyataan Juncker & Breton bahwa suku bunga ECB masih relevan untuk dinaikkan kembali diakhir tahun ini dan penguatan euro tidak perlu dikuatirkan atau dalam masih taraf yang wajar. Ini patut menjadi pertimbangan pula karena People Bank of China dan bank-bank sentral di Timur Tengah berusaha mendiversifikasikan cadangan mata uangnya dari dollar ke mata uang yang lain termasuk euro, Swiss franc, yen dan poundsterling.
Penguatan sterling dipicu oleh kemungkinan besar kenaikan suku bunga BoE di tahun depan dimana ancaman inflasi yang naik masih membayangi Inggris raya yaitu dipicu oleh naiknya harga perumahan dan upah buruh. Sedangkan Swiss franc kembali menguat menjelang data leading indicator diminggu ini.
Hati-hati pula bahwa melemahnya dollar karena factor kesengajaan pemerintah AS karena menangnya partai democrat, dimana partai ini mempunyai kebijakan perekonomian yang moderat atau tidak terlalu agresif seperti seterunya partai republic. Dengan turunnya dollar, maka barang-barang produksi AS diluar negeri akan semakin tampak murah dan diharapkan permintaan serta produksi meningkat sehingga deficit neraca perdagangan semakin kecil.
Focus di Selasa seperti beberapa komentar dari gubernur RBA Richard, menteri keuangan AS Henry Paulson, pejabat ECB Liikanen, pejabat the Fed Plosser, chairman the Fed Ben Bernanke dan pejabat the Fed Michael Moskow yang akan berbicara mengenai outlook ekonomi AS. Sedang data-data ekonomi seperti retail sales dan retail trade Jepang, consumption indicator Swiss, durable goods orders AS, exisiting home sales dan Richmond Fed manufacturing
Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EST + 0500)
€
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar yesterday as the single currency tested offers around the US$1.3165 level and was supported around the $1.3085 level. The market gapped about 65 pips higher at the Australasian open yesterday following Friday’s move that pushed the common currency to its highest level since April 2005. French finance minister Breton said he will “of course” discuss the euro’s strength, adding “the recent depreciation (of the dollar) requires our great collective vigilance.” Many U.S. and European economic data will be released this week including U.S. October personal consumption expenditures data on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will speak about the economy tomorrow and traders will be particularly interested in what he has to say about the U.S. housing market. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if he discusses the U.S. dollar’s recent depreciation. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3045 level.
₤
The British pound appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar yesterday as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9455 level and was supported around the $ 1.9305 level. Cable gapped higher at the Australian open by about 135 pips, a continuation of last week’s significant move that propelled the pair to its highest level since December 2004. BBA data released today saw October mortgage approvals rise to 74,997, their highest level since June. Also, Hometrack reported house prices accelerated in November. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Besley spoke today and said high levels of personal debt are not yet a major concern of policymakers. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9310/ 1.9220 levels. The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6760 level and was capped around the ₤0.6785 level.
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar yesterday as the single currency tested offers around the US$1.3165 level and was supported around the $1.3085 level. The market gapped about 65 pips higher at the Australasian open yesterday following Friday’s move that pushed the common currency to its highest level since April 2005. French finance minister Breton said he will “of course” discuss the euro’s strength, adding “the recent depreciation (of the dollar) requires our great collective vigilance.” Many U.S. and European economic data will be released this week including U.S. October personal consumption expenditures data on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will speak about the economy tomorrow and traders will be particularly interested in what he has to say about the U.S. housing market. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if he discusses the U.S. dollar’s recent depreciation. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3045 level.
₤
The British pound appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar yesterday as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9455 level and was supported around the $ 1.9305 level. Cable gapped higher at the Australian open by about 135 pips, a continuation of last week’s significant move that propelled the pair to its highest level since December 2004. BBA data released today saw October mortgage approvals rise to 74,997, their highest level since June. Also, Hometrack reported house prices accelerated in November. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Besley spoke today and said high levels of personal debt are not yet a major concern of policymakers. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9310/ 1.9220 levels. The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6760 level and was capped around the ₤0.6785 level.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Weekly Market Report, November 27
Last week a few important macroeconomic reports were released. In Canada retail sales and CPI were in the limelight. Retail sales decreased sharply, which signaled economic weakness. CPI fell again, annual rates of growth made only 0.9%. Core CPI resumed uptrend, annual rates of growth made 1.8%. Economy is still weak, inflationary pressure is moderate. If current tendencies remain valid, BoC may start cutting the rates in 2007.
BOJ minutes release was the only significant data on the Japanese economy. The minutes remained almost unchanged. BOJ may keep raising rates, it will depend on current economic data.
As for Great Britain BOE minutes were in the limelight. There were 7 voices from 9 to raise the rates. The minutes were quite dovish, which signals that further rates hikes are hardly probable. Further rates hikes should not be expected, as there are no objective reasons to raise the rates. GDP growth is steady, annual rates of growth make 2.8%. Economic rates of growth are positive, though some deviations in economy bear risks. Industrial production is still weak. Inflationary pressure decrease is observed, though inflation is still high. BOE may tighten monetary policy to get additional data.
As for economy of the Euro zone IFO data was in the limelight. The indicator increased sharply to 106.8. Economic situation is still positive. Economic growth continues, inflationary pressure is moderate on energy resources prices decrease. Trade balance data were positive, the deficit decreased sharply. ECB may raise the rate again in December, then there will be a pause in the circle of rates hikes as inflationary pressure steadied.
As for the US economy, no important data were released. Leading indicators showed positive dynamics and increased in October. Consumer Sentiment (UM) was revised down, it is still at high levels. Economic growth is slowing down, though some stabilization can be noticed. The housing market bears the main risks for the US economy.
Liquidity decreased on holidays, which triggered strong currency fluctuations at low volumes. USD fell sharply on low liquidity, breakout of important technical levels. USD index reached this year lows, further decline will strengthen negative sentiments towards the dollar. Risks of USD further drop are still high.
This week will be rich in important data. In Canada GDP and unemployment data will be in the limelight. Economic rates of growth slowed a bit in 2006. Further slowdown would be a negative signal. Canadian labor market normalized, after sharp fluctuations of unemployment rate the indicator steadied around 6.2%. Unemployment rate reduction would be positive. Economic situation is still unclear in Canada, risks of economic growth slowdown are still valid, rates hikes become less probable in the mid-term perspective.
Economic reports will be in the limelight in Japan. Retail Sales and Industrial Production for September were weak, that is why October data will be important. As BOJ has decided that interest rates hikes will depend on economic data, negative reports will postpone the date of further rates hikes. Inflationary data should be paid attention to, inflation pressure increase may trigger rates increase by 0.25 basis points already in December.
In Great Britain BOE head's speech will be in the limelight. He will probably speak about expected decrease of inflation pressure, in case it is highlighted, it will signal that BOE is not going to raise the rates anymore. Economic growth steadied in GB, economic risks consist in the fact that increase is formed mainly by the real estate market. Any negative tendencies in this market will have negative impact on economic growth. There are no grounds for further rates hikes yet.
As for the Euro zone economy, GDP data for the 3rd quarter and preliminary inflationary data for November will be in the limelight. Economic growth is balanced, it may keep stabilizing. Inflationary pressure decreased, which makes rates hikes in the first half of 2007 less probable. Inflationary pressure may keep steading around 2.0% in the nearest future. It is highly probable that ECB will raise the rates to 3.5%, its further measures will depend on current economic data and forecasts. That is why OECD forecasts release on Tuesday should be paid attention to.
As for the US economy a series of important macroeconomic data will be released. Revision of GDP rates of growth in the 3rd quarter should be paid attention to. Economic growth slowed down mainly on negative tendencies in the real estated data. Last data on New Housing starts were extremely negative, that is why information on selling in the real estate market may have a strong impact on the markets. Existing and New Home Sales for October will be released. Further slowdown in this market will press USD.
Special attention should be paid to Ben Bernanke's speeches on Tuesday and Friday. Any negative evaluation of current economic situation will be treated as a signal of possible rates cuts already in the first half of 2007. Though inflationary pressure is still high, dynamics of inflationary decrease may remain valid, whereas grave doubts arise on economic rates of growth.
Risks of USD decline are still high, current situation signals USD downtrend resumption.
BOJ minutes release was the only significant data on the Japanese economy. The minutes remained almost unchanged. BOJ may keep raising rates, it will depend on current economic data.
As for Great Britain BOE minutes were in the limelight. There were 7 voices from 9 to raise the rates. The minutes were quite dovish, which signals that further rates hikes are hardly probable. Further rates hikes should not be expected, as there are no objective reasons to raise the rates. GDP growth is steady, annual rates of growth make 2.8%. Economic rates of growth are positive, though some deviations in economy bear risks. Industrial production is still weak. Inflationary pressure decrease is observed, though inflation is still high. BOE may tighten monetary policy to get additional data.
As for economy of the Euro zone IFO data was in the limelight. The indicator increased sharply to 106.8. Economic situation is still positive. Economic growth continues, inflationary pressure is moderate on energy resources prices decrease. Trade balance data were positive, the deficit decreased sharply. ECB may raise the rate again in December, then there will be a pause in the circle of rates hikes as inflationary pressure steadied.
As for the US economy, no important data were released. Leading indicators showed positive dynamics and increased in October. Consumer Sentiment (UM) was revised down, it is still at high levels. Economic growth is slowing down, though some stabilization can be noticed. The housing market bears the main risks for the US economy.
Liquidity decreased on holidays, which triggered strong currency fluctuations at low volumes. USD fell sharply on low liquidity, breakout of important technical levels. USD index reached this year lows, further decline will strengthen negative sentiments towards the dollar. Risks of USD further drop are still high.
This week will be rich in important data. In Canada GDP and unemployment data will be in the limelight. Economic rates of growth slowed a bit in 2006. Further slowdown would be a negative signal. Canadian labor market normalized, after sharp fluctuations of unemployment rate the indicator steadied around 6.2%. Unemployment rate reduction would be positive. Economic situation is still unclear in Canada, risks of economic growth slowdown are still valid, rates hikes become less probable in the mid-term perspective.
Economic reports will be in the limelight in Japan. Retail Sales and Industrial Production for September were weak, that is why October data will be important. As BOJ has decided that interest rates hikes will depend on economic data, negative reports will postpone the date of further rates hikes. Inflationary data should be paid attention to, inflation pressure increase may trigger rates increase by 0.25 basis points already in December.
In Great Britain BOE head's speech will be in the limelight. He will probably speak about expected decrease of inflation pressure, in case it is highlighted, it will signal that BOE is not going to raise the rates anymore. Economic growth steadied in GB, economic risks consist in the fact that increase is formed mainly by the real estate market. Any negative tendencies in this market will have negative impact on economic growth. There are no grounds for further rates hikes yet.
As for the Euro zone economy, GDP data for the 3rd quarter and preliminary inflationary data for November will be in the limelight. Economic growth is balanced, it may keep stabilizing. Inflationary pressure decreased, which makes rates hikes in the first half of 2007 less probable. Inflationary pressure may keep steading around 2.0% in the nearest future. It is highly probable that ECB will raise the rates to 3.5%, its further measures will depend on current economic data and forecasts. That is why OECD forecasts release on Tuesday should be paid attention to.
As for the US economy a series of important macroeconomic data will be released. Revision of GDP rates of growth in the 3rd quarter should be paid attention to. Economic growth slowed down mainly on negative tendencies in the real estated data. Last data on New Housing starts were extremely negative, that is why information on selling in the real estate market may have a strong impact on the markets. Existing and New Home Sales for October will be released. Further slowdown in this market will press USD.
Special attention should be paid to Ben Bernanke's speeches on Tuesday and Friday. Any negative evaluation of current economic situation will be treated as a signal of possible rates cuts already in the first half of 2007. Though inflationary pressure is still high, dynamics of inflationary decrease may remain valid, whereas grave doubts arise on economic rates of growth.
Risks of USD decline are still high, current situation signals USD downtrend resumption.
EURO WEEKLY MARKET RECAP, WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
The euro appreciated vis-à -vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3107 level and was supported around the $1.2796 level. The pair gained about 265 pips last week. Remarks from PBOC’s Wu on Friday pushed the common currency to 2006 highs, as did continued speculation the ECB will tighten rates on 7 December and possibly next year. The White House downgraded its GDP forecasts for 2006 and 2007 on account of the housing market slump. Fed Governor Warsh hawkishly called inflation “uncomfortably elevated†and railed against the 50bps of FOMC easing priced in the market. U.S. data saw the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index print at 92.1 – down from October’s 93.2; weekly jobless claims were up 12,000 to 321,000; and NAR’s existing home sales measure was is off 12.7% y/y with sales off in 38 states.
In eurozone news, Eurogroup boss Juncker noted “growth is increasing†and “inflation is coming into line†while ECB chief Trichet said the G10’s mood on inflation has not changed. Bundesbank warned against “second-round effects†on EMU-12 wages. German October producer prices were up 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y; the November Ifo business climate index improved to 106.8; and German GDP expanded 0.6% q/q – down from 1.1% in Q2.
In eurozone news, Eurogroup boss Juncker noted “growth is increasing†and “inflation is coming into line†while ECB chief Trichet said the G10’s mood on inflation has not changed. Bundesbank warned against “second-round effects†on EMU-12 wages. German October producer prices were up 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y; the November Ifo business climate index improved to 106.8; and German GDP expanded 0.6% q/q – down from 1.1% in Q2
In eurozone news, Eurogroup boss Juncker noted “growth is increasing†and “inflation is coming into line†while ECB chief Trichet said the G10’s mood on inflation has not changed. Bundesbank warned against “second-round effects†on EMU-12 wages. German October producer prices were up 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y; the November Ifo business climate index improved to 106.8; and German GDP expanded 0.6% q/q – down from 1.1% in Q2.
In eurozone news, Eurogroup boss Juncker noted “growth is increasing†and “inflation is coming into line†while ECB chief Trichet said the G10’s mood on inflation has not changed. Bundesbank warned against “second-round effects†on EMU-12 wages. German October producer prices were up 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y; the November Ifo business climate index improved to 106.8; and German GDP expanded 0.6% q/q – down from 1.1% in Q2
Perlu koreksi sebelum dollar kembali dihajar !!!
EUR – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3048. Apabila market bergerak ke atas 1.3161 sebelum koreksi terjadi, maka peluang rally menuju 1.32 terbuka lebar.
Sell 1.3131 SL. 1.3161 (-30) TP. 1.3051 (+80)
Buy 1.3161 SL. 1.3121 (-40) TP. 1.3211 (+50)
GBP – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.9523. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.9269. Apabila market bergerak ke atas 1.9409 sebelum koreksi terjadi, maka peluang rally menuju 1.95 terbuka lebar.
Sell 1.9378 SL. 1.9409 (-31) TP. 1.9276 (+102)
Buy 1.9414 SL. 1.9384 (-30) TP. 1.9444 (+30)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.3281. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.3048. Apabila market bergerak ke atas 1.3161 sebelum koreksi terjadi, maka peluang rally menuju 1.32 terbuka lebar.
Sell 1.3131 SL. 1.3161 (-30) TP. 1.3051 (+80)
Buy 1.3161 SL. 1.3121 (-40) TP. 1.3211 (+50)
GBP – USD
Rally masih dapat berlanjut ke 1.9523. Namun saat ini diperlukan koreksi minimal ke area 1.9269. Apabila market bergerak ke atas 1.9409 sebelum koreksi terjadi, maka peluang rally menuju 1.95 terbuka lebar.
Sell 1.9378 SL. 1.9409 (-31) TP. 1.9276 (+102)
Buy 1.9414 SL. 1.9384 (-30) TP. 1.9444 (+30)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Rally Euro dan Sterling terus berlanjut
EUR - USD
Uptrend masih tetap kuat membentuk triangle. Rally akan terus berlanjut setidaknya
ke 1.2977 atau 1.3031 apabila support 1.2917 masih mampu menahan. Setelah penurunan
ke 1.2917 - 1.2905.
Uptrend masih tetap kuat membentuk triangle. Rally akan terus berlanjut setidaknya
ke 1.2977 atau 1.3031 apabila support 1.2917 masih mampu menahan. Setelah penurunan
ke 1.2917 - 1.2905.
Buy at 1.2917 SL. 1.2883 (-34) TP. 1.2977 (+60)
GBP- USD
Uptrend masih terlalu kuat membentuk traingle. Rally akan terus berlanjut minimal
ke 1.9242 atau malah dapat mencapai 1.9281 selagi support 1.9096 masih menahannya.
Setelah penurunan di area 1.9101 - 1.9066.
Buy at 1.9101 SL. 1.9051 (-50) TP. 1.9242 (+141)
God luck !!
Happy Trading
Mr. Asra
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Dollar masih tertekan
Posisi Saya
Kenaikan ke 1.9006 sudah tercapai, kini masih akan menuju ke 1.9047. Namun sebelum berlanjut rally ke 1.9047, perlu didahului koreksi ke area 1.8967 – 1.8944.
GBP – USD
Buy 1.8990 SL. 1.8950 (-40) TP. 1.9050 (+60)
EUR – USD
Rally masih akah berlanjut ke area 1.2890. Selanjutnya koreksi dari titik ini. Selama 1.2800 masih bisa menahan, maka rally akan mulus ke 1.2890. Break 1.2800 – 1.2790 market akan turun minimal ke 1.2776 / 80.
Buy 1.2845 SL. 1.2815 (-30) TP. 1.2884 (+39)
Sell 1.2900 SL. 1.2930 (-30) TP. 1.2850 (+50)
God luck !!!
Happy trading
Mr. Asra
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Posisi Forex Gue Hari Ini
Posisi Saya
GBP – USD
Kenaikan setidaknya mencapai 1.9006 bahkan mungkin mencapai 1.9047. Barulah kemudian market akan turun kembali
Running 1.8979. Buy now TP. 1.9006 TP. II 1.9040.
GBP – USD
Buy 1.8979 SL. 1.8940 (-39) TP. 1.9006 (+27) TP II. 1.9040 (61)
EUR – USD
Rally masih akah berlanjut ke area 1.2872 – 1.2900. Selanjutnya koreksi dari titik ini.
Buy 1.2821 SL. 1.2800 (-21) TP. 1.2872 (+51)
Sell 1.2880 SL. 1.2910 (-30) TP. 1.2800 (+80)
God luck !!!
Happy trading
Mr. Asra
GBP – USD
Kenaikan setidaknya mencapai 1.9006 bahkan mungkin mencapai 1.9047. Barulah kemudian market akan turun kembali
Running 1.8979. Buy now TP. 1.9006 TP. II 1.9040.
GBP – USD
Buy 1.8979 SL. 1.8940 (-39) TP. 1.9006 (+27) TP II. 1.9040 (61)
EUR – USD
Rally masih akah berlanjut ke area 1.2872 – 1.2900. Selanjutnya koreksi dari titik ini.
Running 1.2821. Buy now 1.2821 SL. 1.2800 TP. 1.2872.
Buy 1.2821 SL. 1.2800 (-21) TP. 1.2872 (+51)
Sell 1.2880 SL. 1.2910 (-30) TP. 1.2800 (+80)
God luck !!!
Happy trading
Mr. Asra
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